Can the UCP'S new leader unite a fractious party?

Premier will struggle to bring together old Wildrose, PC factions, professor says

The biggest issue the new leader of the United Conservative Party will face is unity within the ranks, political scientists say.

Party unity will be the No. 1 issue for the new leader to tackle, said Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt.

Over the last few weeks and months, some MLAS have been announcing whether or not they will run in the upcoming 2023 provincial election.

“I have been tracking MLA turnover and I've got records back to 1971 and there's usually 15 to 20 per cent turnover from one election to the next election of people who don't run again for a variety of reasons,” Bratt said.

“But there are years when there's a massive spike. This could be one of those elections where there is a large spike. And that would be interesting given that, especially in the UCP caucus, most of them were not elected prior to 2019. And so it is rare to serve one term, and then leave.

“Usually, we start to get that when governments are tired so I'll be watching for the announcements, not just the backbenchers but of cabinet ministers as well.”

Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, also says unity will be a challenge as many issues under Kenney's leadership have not gone away.

“There's the one wing of the party, the old Wildrose that really wants to have more conflictual relationships with Ottawa, the idea of the sovereignty act, relitigating COVID, and then you've got the old Progressive Conservative wing of the party that considers the old Wildrose folks to be too radical and extremist,” Young said.

“It's going to be very challenging ... to bring those two groups together, particularly with the looming deadline of an election.”

Alberta is about seven months out from a provincial election and polls are unclear where the party stands, Young said.

“There doesn't seem to be anyone who's among the leadership contestants, or the leading ones, who would really give the party a bounce in the polls,” she said.

“I think there's a challenge in getting ready for the election next May.”

Young is also expecting to see a fairly short legislative session in the fall.

“That's an opportunity to set the tone for the government and indicate, presumably, a fairly narrow set of priorities that the new government will pursue over the next few months before the election,” she said.

Meanwhile, with the end of Kenney's premiership on the horizon, he said Thursday morning that he is “feeling great.”

“I'm just doing my job. I tried to deliver on our commitments to Albertans as long as I have this responsibility so I'm grateful, as I said (Wednesday), to have had the privilege of 25 years in public service,” Kenney said at an unrelated news conference in Calgary.

“I'm grateful over the past nearly four years to have the best job in Canada, the best job in my life to lead the best place and the best country on Earth.

“And so I am grateful to have worked with a fantastic team and I am really grateful and happy to see this province back firing on just about every cylinder.”