Smith needs a strong election win

The UCP has thrown itself headlong at the public's feet, hoping to move those stubborn polls and win the May 29 election with another big majority.

At this point, it doesn't seem to be working.

A new poll from Marc Henry's ThinkHQ has the NDP with 46 per cent of decided voter support. The UCP has 45 per cent. Significantly, the poll says the NDP is ahead in Calgary, 48 per cent to 42 per cent.

The UCP offers a lush budget with anti-inflation money; a savings plan to please fiscal conservatives; funding for police and public safety; support for affordable housing; more recovery spaces for those with addictions; a tough anti- Ottawa law on guns; a massive plan to improve school busing; serious action on health care.

On and on it goes, an ever-expanding list to cover off nearly every constituency, backed by the luxury of high oil prices and government revenues. It's hard to imagine how much more they can cough up.

But UCP support appears to be stuck in neutral. On May 29, that could result in something entirely unique for Alberta — a government without a comfortable working majority.

There have been 30 general elections since the province was founded in 1905. Every single one has produced a big majority for the winning party — first the Liberals (four victories); then the United Farmers of Alberta (three); Social Credit (nine); Progressive Conservative (12); NDP (one), and now the United Conservative Party (one).

Over all those elections, the smallest majority belonged to the NDP in 2015 — a nine-seat advantage.

The PCs once won 75 seats.

The opposition had four MLAs. They were treated like legislature pets.

No other province has a political history remotely like this. The very idea of a left-wing opposition party on roughly equal terms is anathema to conservatives. It challenges a core belief in Alberta exceptionalism. That fierce sentiment drove Wildrose and the PCs to unite and defeat the NDP in 2019.

But the NDP, despite the predictions of ex-premier Jason Kenney, did not wither away. It has endured. And now, if there's any reality to the polls, Rachel Notley's party will give the government a serious run.

The result could be a legislature on the edge of deadlock. Forty-four seats are a majority, but that's impractical because MLAs have to choose a speaker.

Even a majority of four or five seats is difficult because every MLA has to be in the house for almost any vote. The shift of a seat or two because of illness, death or scandal can upend the government.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau clings to power with help from the federal NDP. In Alberta, it's unthinkable that a UCP government could poach a few NDP MLAs — or that Notley, as premier, would even think of trying the reverse.

A small UCP victory would inevitably mean trouble for Premier Danielle Smith.

Smith has done a good job of uniting her caucus. Take Back Alberta (TBA), the powerful pro-UCP, anti- Ottawa PAC, is the main cheerleader for her leadership — at least until the election.

The TBA, more than the United Conservative Party itself, has become the face of the conservative movement in large parts of Alberta.

It helped dump Kenney and is now turning out hundreds to nomination meetings.

David Parker, the TBA executive director, put up a revealing tweet in January.

“As someone who has engaged in his fair share of conservative mutinies, I know what they look like,” he wrote.

“The UCP caucus is not rebelling against Danielle Smith. They are focused on beating the NDP.”

And then: “Any rebellion will come after the election, depending on the results.”

Five conservative premiers have been pushed out by internal dissent over more than 30 years, despite great electoral success. They include Don Getty (resigned in 1992); Ralph Klein (2006); Ed Stelmach (2011); Alison Redford (2014); and Kenney (2022).

Only two have eluded party retribution: Jim Prentice, who did it by quitting after he lost to the NDP; and Dave Hancock, chosen by the PC caucus to be temporary premier after Redford quit.

A conservative premier's survival chances are low in the very best of circumstances.

This is one tough league.