Edmonton Journal ePaper

Poll shows UCP with razor-thin lead as campaign enters the home stretch

BILL KAUFMANN BKaufmann@postmedia.com

As Alberta's provincial election enters its last lap, a new poll shows the UCP with a slight edge over the NDP both provincially and in the crucial battleground of Calgary.

A Leger poll of 1,011 people conducted May 23 to 25 shows the UCP with 49 per cent of decided voter support, just ahead of the NDP's 46 per cent.

In the Calgary metropolitan area, where the outcome is expected to decide the overall election, the UCP leads with 48 to 46 per cent of decided survey participants.

Given the survey's margin of error, the results place the two main parties in a statistical tie, says Leger executive vice-president Ian Large.

But the closeness of the Calgaryarea vote — culled from 335 respondents — spells bad news for the NDP, who probably need a healthy majority of the seats in the city to form government, he said.

“We're seeing a narrowing of the gap in Calgary for the NDP but the UCP are still in front ... this isn't looking that good for (the NDP),” said Large.

He noted the Calgary-area polling includes ridings just outside the city that traditionally lean to the UCP, possibly meaning NDP support within the city could be higher.

But even if the NDP ends up with better Calgary numbers than those shown in the poll, it might not be enough, said Large.

“The way the electoral maps are drawn, they could win the popular vote and lose the election,” said Large.

The poll also shows nine per cent of those surveyed provincewide were undecided, but the pollster said it appears voter intention is now largely locked in, adding gaffes and controversies that had dogged UCP Leader Danielle Smith and her party are having little effect.

“If the ethics commissioner's report (stating Smith violated Alberta's Conflicts of Interest Act) hasn't moved the needle, I don't know what else can,” said Large.

When asked who they expect to form the next government, 38 per cent of respondents predicted the UCP while 32 per cent picked the NDP.

The Leger poll shows the NDP with a commanding lead in the Edmonton metropolitan area — 56 per cent support versus 40 per cent for the UCP.

But in the regions outside the two main cities, the UCP dominates with 60 per cent compared to the NDP's 36 per cent.

After several recent polls whose results don't significantly differ, the best bet would be on a narrow UCP victory, said University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young.

“What it tells us is the most probable outcome is a UCP win, but it's not a certainty,” she said.

“The devil's in the details and the polls aren't always correct.”

She said Leger's Calgary polling that pulls in areas just outside the city skews the results in the UCP's favour.

And the crucial outcome within the city limits could break the NDP's way in tight races, said Young.

“A few of those outcomes could tip the balance, and then there's the turnout question — who actually shows up to vote will decide it,” she said.

According to Leger, as a non-random internet survey, its margin of error is not reported. But if the data were collected through a random sample, the margin of error would be plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20 among Albertans, and plus or minus 5.4 points, 19 times out of 20 in the Calgary census metropolitan area.

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2023-05-27T07:00:00.0000000Z

2023-05-27T07:00:00.0000000Z

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